这是特朗普的最后一次“最后机会”吗?永无止境的停火协议破裂潮令伊朗核协议前景存疑


2026年8月4日 美国东部时间12:11 / 福克斯新闻

德黑兰否认与华盛顿正在进行谈判,同时阿曼斡旋建立临时航运走廊

作者:摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻

唐纳德·特朗普总统警告伊朗,这是其达成协议的最后一次机会,与此同时德黑兰否认了特朗普所称的促使他暂缓重大对美打击的谈判。

这场对峙令外交努力的前景不明朗。特朗普表示,间接谈判有望重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,并最终解决伊朗的核计划问题,而德黑兰仅承认与阿曼进行了有限接触,并未公开支持特朗普所描述的这项 broader 协议。

“这其中显然包含造势成分,”国际危机组织中东项目副主任阿里·瓦伊斯对福克斯新闻数字频道表示,“虽然不存在美伊官员同场交换提案与反提案的‘会谈’,但接触似乎仍在持续。”

特朗普称,外交努力说服他取消了原计划对伊朗发动的、他称之为二战以来规模最大的打击。上周末,他表示伊朗和多个中东国家请求更多时间来敲定一项重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并解决德黑兰核计划的协议。

特朗普警告伊朗冲突尚未结束,他誓言美国将“获胜”,谈判却逐渐淡出视野

2026年8月3日周一,在华盛顿白宫椭圆形办公室,唐纳德·特朗普总统在一场关于军人家庭的会议上发言。(美联社照片/亚历克斯·布兰登)

伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊则表示,德黑兰既未与美国举行会谈,也未期待美国代表团到访。他称与阿曼的讨论是为建立一条穿越霍尔木兹海峡的临时航运走廊开展的双边工作。

特朗普对此回应,指责伊朗领导层“极其虚伪”。

“他们请求会晤,有人会说是‘乞求’,会谈就此开启,且近期还安排了更多会谈,但他们却公开且得意洋洋地声称没有进行任何讨论,”特朗普周一在Truth Social上写道。

当天下午晚些时候,特朗普称谈判是伊朗避免美国打击升级的“最后机会”。他表示,谈判代表将首先寻求重新开放海峡,随后转向德黑兰的核计划。

“第一阶段是开放海峡,第二阶段将实现无核化,”特朗普在椭圆形办公室说道,“这需要一点时间。”

特朗普表示,记者们“今天或明天”就能了解更多关于谈判的细节。伊朗尚未公开支持他的计划的任何一个阶段。

沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾盟友敦促特朗普暂缓原计划的打击行动,担心伊朗会对其领土展开更多报复行动。防务民主基金会执行主任乔纳森·尚泽表示,这些担忧让特朗普的下一步行动变得复杂。

“他希望能够带着胜利全身而退,但伊朗不给他这个机会,”尚泽对福克斯新闻数字频道说道,“目前他面前没有清晰的前进道路。”

美国官员称JD·万斯在伊朗谈判中取得“巨大进展”,称被忽视的报道是“外国宣传”

2026年3月11日周三,从阿联酋豪尔费坎视角拍摄的霍尔木兹海峡内排队的油轮和货船。(美联社照片/阿尔塔夫·卡德里)

一份6月份的备忘录也曾以达成更广泛和解为承诺。美国和伊朗签署该备忘录以停止战斗、解除美国封锁并重新开放海峡。

航运问题成为了6月份备忘录的首个考验,其迅速暴露了美伊之间的巨大分歧。双方各自提出了恢复海峡商业通航的方案。几天后,当美国官员指责伊朗向商业船只开火后,美国随即发动了打击。德黑兰则表示,华盛顿试图在未征得其同意的情况下强行推行新的航运安排。

图片展示了美军对伊朗发动的打击。(美国中央司令部)

谈判代表始终未能弥合这一分歧。特朗普在7月初宣布停火协议结束,并扩大了美国的空袭行动。伊朗则以针对美军阵地和地区盟友的导弹与无人机袭击作为回应。

这场战斗在8月底引发了另一次更短暂的停火。特朗普称调解人已请求美国停火,伊朗则表示将配合这一安排。但没过几天,伊朗导弹就瞄准了美军在约旦的阵地,冲突再次升级。

短暂停火已成为这场冲突的常态,尚泽将其描述为一场“停火之战”。

“这场战争被短暂的平静期打断,随后冲突便再次爆发,”尚泽说道。

即便阿曼成功开辟一条临时航道,也只能解决船舶如何穿越海峡的眼前问题。特朗普希望通过这一步骤,推动就伊朗核计划展开谈判,但德黑兰尚未公开认可这一顺序。只要伊朗仍能威胁航运通行,而美国仍能维持封锁并准备进一步打击,双方都可能认为可以耗下去,而非做出结束战争所需的让步。

“从根本上来说,双方都清楚,维持现状只会导致持续的军事和经济消耗,却没有明确的终结方案,”瓦伊斯说道。

Is this Trump’s last ‘last chance’? Ceaseless string of broken ceasefires fuels doubt over Iran deal

August 4, 2026 12:11pm EDT / Fox News

Tehran denies negotiations with Washington are taking place while Oman brokers a temporary shipping corridor

By Morgan Phillips Fox News

President Donald Trump is warning Iran that it has one last chance to make a deal, even as Tehran denies the negotiations Trump says persuaded him to hold off on a major U.S. attack.

The clash has left the status of the diplomatic effort unclear. Trump says indirect talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and eventually address Iran’s nuclear program, while Tehran acknowledges only limited discussions with Oman and has not publicly embraced the broader deal Trump has described.

“There’s certainly an element of posturing involved,” Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East at International Crisis Group, told Fox News Digital. “While there are no ‘talks’ in the sense of U.S. and Iranian officials sitting at the same venue exchanging proposals and counter-offers, engagement appears ongoing.”

Trump said diplomacy persuaded him to call off a planned attack on Iran that he described as the biggest since World War II. Over the weekend, he said Iran and several Middle Eastern countries had asked for more time to finalize an agreement reopening Hormuz and addressing Tehran’s nuclear program.

TRUMP WARNS IRAN FIGHTING ISN’T OVER AS HE VOWS US WILL ‘WIN’ AS TALKS FADE

President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting about military families, in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Aug. 3, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, however, that Tehran was neither holding talks with the United States nor expecting an American delegation. He described the Oman discussions as a bilateral effort to establish a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait.

Trump, in response, accused Iran’s leadership of being “unbelievably duplicitous.”

“They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg,’ talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions,” Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social.

Later that afternoon, Trump called the talks Iran’s “last chance” to avoid an escalation in U.S. strikes. He said negotiators would first seek to reopen the Strait, then turn to Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearization,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “And that will take a little while.”

Trump said reporters could learn more about the negotiations “today or tomorrow.” Iran has not publicly endorsed either phase of his plan.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies have urged Trump to hold off on the planned attack, fearing more Iranian reprisals against their territory. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said those concerns have complicated Trump’s next move.

“He’d like to be able to walk away with a win. The Iranians are not allowing him to do that,” Schanzer told Fox News Digital. “There is not a clear path ahead for him at this moment.”

US OFFICIAL SAYS JD VANCE MADE ‘GREAT PROGRESS’ IN IRAN TALKS, CALLS SNUB REPORTS ‘FOREIGN PROPAGANDA’

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026.(AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

A June memorandum also opened with promises of a broader settlement. The United States and Iran signed it to halt fighting, lift the U.S. blockade and reopen the Strait.

Shipping became the first test of the June memorandum, and it quickly exposed how far apart Washington and Tehran remained. Each side had its own plan for restoring commercial traffic through the Strait. When U.S. officials accused Iran of firing on commercial vessels days later, American strikes followed. Tehran said Washington had tried to force through a new shipping arrangement without its consent.

Image shows a US strike on Iran.(US Central Command)

Negotiators never bridged that divide. Trump declared the ceasefire over in early July and expanded the U.S. air campaign. Iran answered with missile and drone attacks on American positions and regional partners.

That fighting set up another, shorter pause at the end of the month. Trump said mediators had asked the U.S. to hold fire, an arrangement Iran said it would match. Within days, Iranian missiles targeted U.S. forces in Jordan and the conflict spread again.

Brief breaks have become a feature of the conflict, which Schanzer described as a “ceasefire war.”

“It is a war that is punctuated by short bouts of calm, only to see conflict return,” Schanzer said.

Even if Oman succeeds in opening a temporary route, it would settle only the immediate question of how ships move through the Strait. Trump wants that step to lead into negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, a sequence Tehran has yet to publicly embrace. As long as Iran can still threaten traffic and Washington can maintain its blockade and prepare further strikes, each side may decide it can wait the other out rather than make the concessions needed to end the war.

“Fundamentally, both sides know that the status quo is a recipe for continued military and economic attrition without a clear endgame,” Vaez said.

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