2026-08-03 14:05:44 UTC / 路透社
路透社
2026年8月3日 下午2:05 UTC 1小时前更新
- 制造业PMI从6月的53.3升至7月的55.6
- 新订单指数攀升至56.7，工厂就业指数回升至52.8
- 供应商交货速度放缓，支付价格指数仍维持在71.1的高位
华盛顿8月3日路透电 — 美国7月制造业活动升至四年多来最高水平，得益于订单强劲增长，推动工厂就业，但中东冲突正拖累供应链，令投入成本居高不下。
美国供应管理协会（ISM）周一表示，该国7月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从6月的53.3升至55.6，为2022年5月以来最高读数。路透社此前调查的经济学家曾预测该PMI会小幅升至54.0。
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今年以来，PMI始终保持在50的荣枯线以上，表明制造业板块处于扩张状态。
占美国经济约9.4%的制造业得到支撑，因企业提前下单以规避美伊战争带来的价格上涨和供应短缺问题。人工智能基础设施建设也在推动科技行业活动，抵消了进口关税对制造业的冲击。
目前企业库存处于极低水平，制造业有充足的扩张空间。美联储上月报告显示，第二季度工厂生产增速达到四年最快。
政府上周公布的数据显示，企业库存已连续五个季度下滑。
工厂就业出现反弹
ISM调查的新订单指数从6月的56.0升至56.7。出口订单激增，未完成工作积压，促使工厂增加用工。衡量制造业就业的指数从6月的49.7回升至52.8，为2022年8月以来最高。
但强劲的需求正遭遇供应限制。
该调查的供应商交货指数从6月的57.4升至58.9。读数高于50意味着交货速度放缓。供应商交货时间延长可能推高了上月的PMI，因为这通常与经济强劲和需求旺盛挂钩。
供应限制导致上月工厂出厂价通胀依然高企，尽管涨幅有所放缓。该调查的投入品支付价格指数从6月的73.0小幅回落至仍处于高位的71.1。
这一读数可能反映了6月美伊之间脆弱的停火协议导致油价回落。但随着7月休战协议破裂，油价此后已出现上涨。
美联储上周将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间。美国央行政策制定委员会的三名委员投下反对票，倾向于加息25个基点。
目前这场战争已进入第六个月，通胀风险偏向上行。
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US manufacturing activity jumps to more than four-year high in July
2026-08-03 14:05:44 UTC / Reuters
By Reuters
August 3, 2026 2:05 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
QCells employees test a finished solar panel at the QCells North America factory in Cartersville, Georgia, U.S. June 8, 2026. REUTERS/Alyssa Pointer
- Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June
- New orders index climbs to 56.7 while factory employment measure rebounds to 52.8
- Supplier deliveries slow, prices paid gauge remains elevated at 71.1
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing activity increased to the highest level in more than four years in July amid strong order growth, boosting factory employment, though the Middle East conflict is straining supply chains and keeping input costs elevated.
The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its manufacturing PMI increased to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI would edge up to 54.0.
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The PMI has this year held above the 50 threshold, which indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing, which accounts for about 9.4% of the economy, has been supported by businesses front-loading orders to avoid higher prices and shortages stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. An artificial intelligence buildout is also driving activity in the technology sector, blunting the hit on manufacturing from import tariffs.
With business inventories at very low levels, there is ample room for manufacturing to expand. The Federal Reserve reported last month that factory production grew at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter.
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Business inventories have declined for five straight quarters, the government reported last week.
FACTORY EMPLOYMENT REBOUNDS
The ISM survey’s new orders measure rose to 56.7 last month from 56.0 in June. Export orders surged and unfinished work piled up, prompting factories to boost employment. A measure of manufacturing employment rebounded to 52.8, the highest level since August 2022, from 49.7 in June.
Strong demand is, however, running into supply constraints.
The survey’s supplier deliveries index increased to 58.9 from 57.4 in June. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The lengthening in suppliers’ delivery times likely contributed to the jump in the PMI last month, as it is normally associated with a strong economy and high demand.
Supply constraints meant inflation at the factory gate remained elevated last month, though the pace of increase slowed. The survey’s gauge of prices paid for inputs slipped to a still-high 71.1 from 73.0 in June.
That reading could reflect a retreat in oil prices in June amid a shaky ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices have since risen following the collapse of the truce in July.
The Fed last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Three members of the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting committee dissented, preferring a quarter-percentage-point hike.
Inflation risks are tilted to the upside because of the war, which is now in its sixth month.
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Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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