2026-08-03T08:00:25.637Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/democrats-midterms-senate
2026年选举周期伊始，民主党人掌控参议院多数席位的希望面临的最大障碍似乎一目了然：选举地图对他们极为不利。
他们需要至少拿下两个在2024年总统选举中唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。当时人们甚至不确定他们能否将这么多红色州纳入竞选范围。
如今，越来越多的民调显示，他们已经将足够多的这类州纳入了竞选版图。但其他让其多数席位优势计算变得复杂的障碍也随之浮现——为了在2027年掌控参议院，一场极其复杂且事关重大的较量即将拉开帷幕。
对民主党人来说的好消息是：近期开展的高质量早期民调显示，这些红色州已具备竞争力。但对该党的坏消息是：仅此或许还不够。
在得克萨斯州，周五公布的福克斯新闻民调显示，民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科在登记选民中支持率达51%，州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿为48%。这不过是最新一份显示这场竞选势均力敌的民调。
在艾奥瓦州，6月底的福克斯新闻民调显示，州众议员乔希·图雷克在登记选民中领先4个百分点。而在同月晚些时候《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合开展的民调中，他与共和党众议员阿什利·辛森的支持率不相上下——可能选民中两人分别为46%和48%。
在俄亥俄州，6月初的福克斯新闻民调显示，前参议员谢罗德·布朗在登记选民中领先8个百分点。而在当月晚些时候《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调中，他与共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德的支持率相差无几——可能选民中两人分别为47%和50%。
在阿拉斯加州，《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调显示，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉与共和党参议员丹·沙利文的支持率差距仅为2个百分点。
当然，现阶段的民调并不能用来预测选举结果，但它表明这些候选人正在做他们该做的事，以让这些州具备竞争力。
具体而言，福克斯新闻的民调显示，他们测试的三位民主党候选人都以较大优势赢得了独立选民的支持——在塔拉里科和图雷克的竞选中，这一优势甚至超过了2比1。塔拉里科和图雷克也都获得了至少23%的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人的支持。（俄亥俄州的民调未单独列出这一群体的数据。）
在《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调中，佩尔托拉在独立选民中以51%比37%领先，还获得了8%的共和党选民支持。
民主党人能否在像得克萨斯州这样的州真正突破难关——该州此前曾多次接近胜利，但30多年来都未赢得过全州范围的选举——是一个大问题。但显然，他们已经为拿下其中两州创造了机会。
民主党人突然在一些对他们更友好的州遇到了麻烦—— namely，缅因州和密歇根州——还有一个被称为参议员约翰·费特曼的新未知因素。
在缅因州，民主党人已经摆脱了格雷厄姆·普拉特纳带来的问题。但目前尚不清楚他的替代者、前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊在新的聚光灯下最终能取得多大成效。
7月中旬新罕布什尔大学的民调显示，在可能参加大选的选民中，杰克逊的支持率为49%，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯为46%。但同一家民调机构此前曾在普拉特纳陷入更大争议之前，显示他领先对手9至11个百分点。
密歇根州是民主党人更紧迫的担忧所在，他们需要守住退休参议员加里·彼得斯空出的席位。一些民主党高层人士严重担忧，支持参议员伯尼·桑德斯的阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德——他将于周二在民主党初选中对阵众议员黑利·史蒂文斯——可能会危及这个民主党人在对本党有利的年份本应轻松拿下的紫色州。
（一个恰当的例子：近期民调显示，民主党候选人在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州等处境相似的摇摆州以约10个百分点的优势轻松领先。）
但或许在这场多数席位优势计算中，最不受欢迎的变量可能是费特曼。这位宾夕法尼亚州参议员近年来表现出倾向于与共和党人站在一起、让本党陷入困境的倾向，如今也越来越多地流露出走党换门的念头。
早在5月，费特曼就曾表示他“没有离开民主党”的计划。但几周前，他修正了这一立场，称如果民主党采取反以色列立场，他就会退党——这一话题在民主党内部引发了严重分歧。
民主党人的立场正越来越倾向于反对以色列，这反映了其基础选民的观点，不过正如费特曼所指出的，这并非民主党“官方”立场。尽管如此，考虑到基础选民施加的巨大压力，真正的问题在于，对这位宾夕法尼亚州参议员来说，这一立场会成为多么严格的试金石。
这意味着民主党人在11月大选前甚至都无法确定自己需要赢得多少个席位。他们是否需要像此前预想的那样，拿下包括两个特朗普以大幅优势获胜的红色州在内的四个席位？还是说他们实际上需要分别赢得五个和三个席位？
民主党人显然占据了基本盘优势，而当前的环境似乎也有利于他们在需要获胜的地方取胜。就像在红色州一样，民调显示他们在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的候选人在独立选民中拥有巨大领先优势，并且获得了相当数量的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人的支持。
但看起来最终决定参议院命运的，或许不再是红色州。
Senate Democrats are putting red states in play. That might not be good enough anymore
2026-08-03T08:00:25.637Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/democrats-midterms-senate
The big hurdle for Democrats’ Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.
They needed to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. It wasn’t even clear they could put that many red states in play.
Now, polls increasingly suggest they have put more than enough of those states in play. But other hurdles that complicate their majority math have cropped up — creating an incredibly complex and high-stakes battle to control the Senate come 2027.
The good news for Democrats: Recent, early high-quality polling suggests red states are competitive. The bad news for the party: That might not be sufficient.
In Texas, a Fox News poll Friday showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 51% among registered voters to state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 48%. It’s merely the latest to show the race close to even.
In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek led by 4 points among registered voters in a Fox poll in late June. And he was neck and neck with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson — 46% to 48% among likely voters — in a New York Times-Siena poll, also in late June.
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown led by 8 points among registered voters in a Fox poll from early June. And he was running close with GOP Sen. Jon Husted — 47% to 50% among likely voters — in a Times-Siena poll from later that month.
And in Alaska, a Times-Siena poll showed Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola within 2 points of GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Polling at this stage can’t be interpreted to predict results, of course, but it suggests that these candidates are doing what they need to do to make those states competitive.
Specifically, the Fox polls show the three Democrats they tested carrying independents by wide margins — including by more than a 2-1 ratio in Talarico’s and Turek’s cases. And both Talarico and Turek were both also carrying at least 23% of non-MAGA Republicans. (The Ohio poll didn’t break out this group.)
Peltola also led 51%-37% among independents and took 8% of Republicans in the Times-Siena poll.
Whether Democrats can actually get over the hump in a state like Texas — where they’ve come close before, but haven’t won a statewide race in more than 30 years — is a big question. But they’ve pretty evidently given themselves a chance to pick off two of those states.
Democrats are suddenly dealing with complications in some friendlier states — namely, Maine and Michigan — and the new x-factor known as Sen. John Fetterman.
In Maine, Democrats were able to rid themselves of their Graham Platner problem. But it’s not yet clear how much better his replacement, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, will ultimately fare under the new spotlight.
A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July put Jackson at 49% to GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ 46% among likely general election voters. But the same pollster once had Platner (prior to his bigger controversies) leading by between 9 and 11 points.
Michigan is Democrats’ more immediate concern, where they’re playing defense to hold onto a seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. There are major concerns among some establishment Democrats that Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed Abdul El-Sayed, who’s facing Rep. Haley Stevens in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, might jeopardize a purple state that Democrats would reasonably expect to win in a favorable year for their party.
(A case in point: Recent polls show Democratic candidates comfortably ahead — by around 10 points — in similarly situated swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.)
But perhaps the most unwelcome variable in this majority math might be Fetterman. The Pennsylvania senator, who has demonstrated a penchant for siding with Republicans and giving his party fits in recent months, has also increasingly flirted with switching parties.
Back in May, Fetterman wrote that he had “no plans to leave” the Democratic Party. But a couple weeks ago, he amended that posture by saying he would leave it if it adopts an anti-Israel posture — a topic causing significant strife within the party.
Democrats have been trending more against Israel, reflecting the views of their base, though it isn’t an “official” position, as Fetterman laid out. Still, given huge pressure from that base, the real question is how stringent a litmus test this is for the Pennsylvania senator.
That means Democrats could go into the November general election not even knowing how many seats they need to win. Do they need to flip four seats, including two red ones that Trump carried by significant margins, as they’d previously thought? Or do they need to actually win five and three, respectively?
Democrats clearly have the fundamentals on their side, and it’s looking like the environment is conducive to them winning where they need to. Just like in the red states, polls show their candidates in Georgia and North Carolina have big leads among independents and are taking significant numbers of non-MAGA Republicans.
But it’s also looking like it might not be red states that ultimately decide the fate of the Senate.
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