2026-07-30T10:00:26.244Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change
距离中期选举不到100天，选民们正呼吁对国会进行全面改革，并期待民主党能推动这一变革。
根据SSRS进行的最新CNN民调，在登记选民中，民主党在通用国会选票测试中以8个百分点的优势领先共和党。民主党在选民热情度上也继续保持显著优势，在表示“极其有动力投票”的选民中，民主党以20个百分点的优势领先。更多美国人认为，如果民主党在今年11月掌控国会，国家状况会变得更好（38%），而认为会更糟的比例为33%，另有29%的人认为这不会带来任何改变。
从选民对华盛顿政坛彻底变革的迫切渴望来看，多数选民表示，如果国会现任多数议员在今年秋季选举中落选，国会的表现会更好。这一比例比2006年伊拉克战争期间民主党掀起蓝色浪潮选举前的支持率高出两位数。
选民对华盛顿的不满体现在对两党及其国会领导人的负面看法上，同时人们普遍认为，两党都没有投入足够时间关注始终位居选民心头首位的经济议题。
但共和党在这一指标上的表现稍差：63%的美国人认为共和党对生活成本问题关注过少，而认为民主党没有投入足够时间关注该问题的比例为52%。
美国人以10个百分点的优势认为民主党比共和党更“代表变革的政党”，这与今年春季的情况形成了转变——当时共和党在这一指标上拥有7个百分点的优势。共和党作为“能够办成事的政党”的微弱优势在过去一年中也有所收窄。与此同时，约有一半的公众表示两党都不配拥有这些标签。
民主党及倾向民主党的独立选民尤其迫切希望党内进行变革。近60%的民主党支持者认为，民主党至少需要进行重大改革，即便不是彻底改组。
与此同时，与民主党立场一致的选民现在比唐纳德·特朗普第二任总统任期初期更有可能表示，过去几年的政治局势让他们感觉更贴近民主党（当前比例为31%，2025年1月为23%）。
那些认为需要变革的选民更倾向于认为，推出年轻候选人、更换领导层以及更坚定地反对特朗普会改善民主党——而非向左翼或中间路线靠拢。还有部分选民表示，无论向哪个方向调整，都能让民主党有所进步。
民主党阵营最强大的凝聚力或许仍是对特朗普的愤怒，目前这种愤怒情绪超过了他在共和党内部激发的忠诚度。70%的民主党支持者表示，他们在11月的投票是为了表达对这位总统的反对，而仅有41%的共和党支持者表示，他们的投票是为了表达对特朗普的支持。
六成民主党及民主党倾向的独立选民表示，如果本党提名哪怕只是支持特朗普部分关键政策的候选人，他们会感到不满。这一比例远高于他们对好斗行事风格、年龄超过70岁或是民主社会主义者的候选人表示强烈反对的比例。相比之下，仅有18%的共和党支持者表示，如果候选人反对特朗普的关键政策，他们会感到不满。
尽管特朗普在共和党选民中的支持率有所下滑，但仍有56%的共和党及共和党倾向选民认为，他对共和党产生了积极影响，这一比例低于今年早些时候的67%。
但共和党及共和党倾向的独立选民并不像民主党人那样迫切希望党内进行变革，仅有约三分之一的人认为共和党需要进行重大改革。这种不满情绪在共和党内部的非“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）翼中更为强烈：46%不认为自己属于MAGA运动的共和党人认为共和党需要全面改组，而在MAGA支持者中这一比例仅为17%。
MAGA共和党及共和党倾向选民认为特朗普对共和党产生了积极影响的比例是其他共和党人的约两倍，而承认前总统乔·拜登2020年选举胜利的比例仅为其他共和党人的约四分之一。
多数民主党倾向的成年人表示，如果本党提名支持削减对以色列援助的候选人，他们可以接受；而多数共和党人则对持相同立场的共和党候选人感到不那么自在。但两党内部在这一问题上都并非意见一致。
年龄是一条明显的分界线：45岁以下的民主党倾向选民比年长的同阵营选民对这类候选人的热情度高出22个百分点。与此同时，45岁以下的共和党倾向选民比年长的同阵营选民对这类候选人表示“至少可以接受”的比例高出23个百分点。
民主党试图将打击腐败作为中期选举的核心议题。但尽管他们指出的一些例子——包括特朗普在总统任期间的个人收入——深受公众反感，但美国人在哪个政党更致力于打击腐败的问题上意见几乎持平，近一半的人表示两党都没有做到这一点。
在共和党试图聚焦文化战争议题的背景下，美国人认为共和党过于关注种族和性别问题的比例（31%）与认为民主党在该议题上投入过多的比例（36%）几乎不相上下。
本次CNN民调由SSRS于7月23日至27日开展，通过概率抽样面板从全美随机抽取了1225名美国成年人作为样本。调查通过线上或由访员进行的电话访问完成。全样本的抽样误差范围为正负3.2个百分点。
CNN的爱德华·吴为本报告撰稿。
CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the midterms
2026-07-30T10:00:26.244Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change
Less than 100 days before the midterms, voters are agitating for wholesale change in Congress and looking to the Democratic Party in hopes of making that happen.
Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8 points among registered voters, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Democrats also continue to hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm and have a 20-point advantage in preferences among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote. More Americans say the country would be better off (38%) than worse off (33%) if Democrats were to take control of Congress this November, with 29% saying it wouldn’t make a difference.
In an indication of the hunger for drastic change in Washington, a majority of voters say that Congress would be better off if most of its current members were unseated in this fall’s election, higher by double digits than the share who felt that way ahead of the Democratic wave election in the midst of the Iraq War in 2006.
Voters’ frustration with Washington comes through in deeply negative views of both parties and their congressional leaders, along with a widespread sense that neither side is spending enough time on the economic concerns that have consistently been top of mind for voters.
But it’s Republicans who fare a bit worse on that metric: 63% of Americans say that the GOP is focusing too little on cost-of-living issues, compared with 52% who say the Democrats aren’t spending enough time on it.
By a 10-point margin, Americans now call Democrats more than Republicans “the party of change,” a shift from last spring, when the GOP had a 7-point advantage on that metric. The GOP’s modest edge on perceptions as “the party that can get things done” has also narrowed over the past year. At the same time, roughly half of the public says neither party deserves these labels.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are particularly eager for change within the party itself. Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic-aligned adults say their party needs at least major changes, if not complete reform.
At the same time, those who align with the Democratic Party are now more likely than they were at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term to say the last few years of politics made them feel closer to the Democratic Party (31% now vs. 23% in January 2025).
Those who see a need for change are far more likely to think that younger candidates, new leadership and a stronger stand against Trump would improve the party – rather than a move to either the left or the center. And some said that moving in either direction would be an improvement.
Perhaps the most powerful unifying force on the Democratic side remains anger at Trump, which currently outpaces the loyalty he’s inspiring within the GOP. Seven out of 10 Democratic-aligned voters say their vote in November will be to send a message of opposition to the president, while just 41% of GOP-aligned voters say theirs will be a show of support.
Six in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they’d be upset to see their party nominate a candidate who supports even some key Trump policies, far higher than the share who’d strongly object to a candidate with a pugnacious approach, one over age 70, or one who’s a democratic socialist. By contrast, just 18% of Republican-aligned adults say they’d be upset with a candidate who opposes key Trump policies.
Amid some erosion in Trump’s GOP support, 56% of Republicans and Republican-leaners now say he has had a good effect on the party, down from 67% who said so earlier this year.
But Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are not as eager as Democrats are for change within their party, with only about one-third saying the party needs major changes. That sentiment is much stronger among the non-MAGA wing of the party: 46% of those who don’t consider themselves members of the Make America Great Again movement feel the party needs an overhaul, compared with 17% of those who do.
MAGA Republicans and Republican-leaners are about twice as likely as the rest of the GOP to say that Trump has had a good effect on the party, and only about one-quarter as likely to acknowledge former President Joe Biden’s 2020 election win.
Most Democratic-aligned adults say they’d be fine with their party nominating a candidate who supports cutting aid to Israel, while most Republicans would be less comfortable with a GOP candidate saying the same. But neither party is unanimous on the issue.
Age is a clear dividing line: Democratic-aligned adults younger than 45 are 22 points likelier than their older counterparts to say they’d be enthusiastic about such a candidate. Younger GOP-aligned adults, meanwhile, are 23 points likelier than older ones to say they’d feel at least OK about it.
Democrats have tried to seize on fighting corruption as a midterm plank. But while some of the examples they’ve pointed to – including Trump’s personal earnings while president – are deeply unpopular with the public, Americans are about evenly split on which party is fighting corruption, with nearly half saying that applies to neither side.
And amid Republican efforts to focus on culture war issues, Americans are nearly as likely to say that the GOP is too focused on race and gender issues (31%) as they are to say Democrats are doing too much on the topic (36%).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from July 23-27 among a random national sample of 1,225 US adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.
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