2026-07-29T22:04:31.265Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/maga-trump-midterms
共和党人开始为2026年中期选举前其支持者缺乏热情的状况感到担忧。
这些选民原本就不太可能在没有唐纳德·特朗普参选的选举中投票，而如今共和党还要应对这位总统比以往任何时候都更不受欢迎的局面。
一项新的CNN民调凸显了这一问题：特朗普的大量支持者近期对他的多项决策感到失望。
在一系列涉及经济、伊朗战争、特朗普中饱私囊以及整顿华盛顿等议题的调查问题中，共和党人及倾向共和党的无党派人士中有很大比例表达了不满情绪。通常情况下，不满比例达到30%、40%、50%甚至更高。
总体而言，CNN民调显示，30%的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士不认可特朗普的表现。
这个数字本身就已经相当高了。但在某些方面，这一数据实际上可能低估了民众的失望程度。
毫无疑问，对特朗普和共和党来说最令人不安的民调数据与经济相关。
经济问题本就是选民最关心的头等大事；而特朗普在经济议题上的支持率也是最差的。
具体来看，在受访的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士中：
- 64%的人表示高油价已对他们造成至少“中等程度”的生活困难
- 56%的人认为当前经济状况非常差或有些差
- 56%的人认为特朗普在降低日常商品价格方面做得还不够
- 56%的人不认可特朗普在油价问题上的表现
- 51%的人认为特朗普在油价问题上没有明确的计划
- 50%的人认为特朗普的政策没有改善经济状况（其中31%的人表示他的政策实际上让情况变得更糟）
- 47%的人不认可特朗普在通胀问题上的表现
这些数据意味着，本该支持特朗普的群体中，有近半数或更多的人目前对经济及其治理方式颇有怨言。
在伊朗问题上的民调数据稍好一些，但依然不容乐观。
同样在受访的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士中：
- 64%的人认为美国与伊朗爆发长期战争的可能性很大
- 45%的人认为这场战争在人员伤亡和资金投入方面的代价不值得
- 45%的人认为特朗普在伊朗问题上没有明确的计划
- 40%的人整体上不认可特朗普在伊朗问题上的表现
- 39%的人认为他对伊朗采取军事行动的决定损害了美国利益（另有44%的人认为这一行动帮助了美国，其余受访者持中立态度）
特朗普在伊朗问题上的支持率走势仍在恶化。这类群体对特朗普在伊朗问题上的不认可率已从3月份的30%升至如今的40%。
民调还显示，特朗普的许多支持者根本不喜欢他当前关注的事务，包括他的个人财务以及白宫宴会厅和林肯纪念堂倒影池改造等项目。
在受访的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士中：
- 45%的人认为特朗普“没有关注到普通美国人日常生活中面临的问题”——这一比例较1月份的34%有所上升
- 39%的人认为他没有对国家最重要的问题给予足够重视——较1月份的25%有所上升
- 约三成的人认为特朗普在改造史密森尼学会、肯尼迪中心（特朗普曾将自己的名字刻在该中心，后被法官移除）、翻新白宫及其他华盛顿地标建筑，以及在任期间追逐个人商业利益等方面“做得太过火”
- 30%的人认为特朗普没有将国家利益置于个人利益之上
- 26%的人对宴会厅和倒影池改造项目感到愤怒或不满（相比之下，仅有39%的人对这些项目持积极态度）
如果仅仅是经济表现不佳、民众认为他的政策没有成效，对特朗普来说已经够糟糕的了。
但这些民调数据——再加上大多数特朗普支持者认为他忽视了通胀问题——清楚地表明，许多支持者认为他正专注于要么不值得关注、要么本身就不受欢迎的事务。
在特朗普就职后的最初几个月，当被问及对他第二任期剩余时间的感受时，近九成的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士表示他们“充满热情”或“乐观积极”。
如今，这一比例已骤降至70%。
另有30%的人表示他们“悲观”或“担忧”。
这一抱有负面看法的30%比例相当引人注目。2012年前总统巴拉克·奥巴马连任后不久，仅有8%的民主党人和倾向民主党的无党派人士表示感到悲观或担忧。而2004年前总统乔治·W·布什连任前夕，也仅有5%的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士对他抱有同样看法。
此外，皮尤研究中心近期的一项民调也得出了类似结论。
该民调显示，81%的民主党人和倾向民主党的无党派人士表示，他们在中期选举中的投票将是对特朗普的反对票，而仅有44%的共和党人和倾向共和党的无党派人士表示，他们的投票将是对特朗普的支持票。
这种不满情绪的迹象早在一年前杰弗里·爱泼斯坦事件曝光时就已显现。最新的民调数据表明，这种情绪如今已在共和党支持者群体中广泛蔓延——对共和党来说，这是一个非常不合时宜的状况。
From bad to worse for Trump and his base
2026-07-29T22:04:31.265Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/maga-trump-midterms
Republicans are starting to fret about their base’s lack of enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Those voters were already disproportionately less likely to vote in elections not featuring Donald Trump, and now the GOP has to contend with the president being more unpopular than ever.
And a new CNN poll drives home the problem: Large portions of Trump’s base are feeling disillusioned over more than a few of his choices lately.
Across a bevy of questions — on subjects ranging from the economy to the Iran war to Trump’s self-enrichment and efforts to makeover Washington — large percentages of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are registering discontent. As in, often 30%, 40%, 50% or more.
Overall, the CNN poll shows 30% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents disapprove of Trump.
That number is rather high in and of itself. But it actually might undersell the level of disillusionment on some fronts.
Without question, the most troubling numbers for Trump and the GOP concern the economy.
Not only is the economy generally voters’ biggest concern; it also features Trump’s worst numbers.
To wit, among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents in the poll:
- 64% say high gas prices have caused at least a “moderate” hardship for them
- 56% say the economy is very or somewhat poor
- 56% say Trump hasn’t gone far enough to reduce the price of everyday goods
- 56% disapprove of Trump’s performance on gas prices
- 51% say Trump doesn’t have a clear plan on gas prices
- 50% say Trump’s policies haven’t improved economic conditions (with 31% saying his policies have actually made things worse)
- 47% disapprove of Trump on inflation
That’s around half or more of what should be Trump’s own supporters that have a lot of gripes about the economy and his handling of it right now.
The numbers are slightly less grim on Iran, but still pretty grim.
Again, among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents:
- 64% think a long-term war with Iran is likely
- 45% say the toll of the war — in lives and money — hasn’t been worth it
- 45% say Trump doesn’t have a clear plan for Iran
- 40% disapprove of Trump overall on Iran
- 39% say his decisions about military action in Iran have hurt the US (versus 44% who say it has helped, with the rest being neutral)
And Trump’s trend line on Iran continues to be bad. Trump’s disapproval on Iran among these groups has increased from 30% in March to 40% today.
The poll also shows many members of Trump’s base simply don’t like what he’s focused on — including his personal finances and projects like the White House ballroom and Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
Among these groups:
- 45% say Trump isn’t “in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives” — up from 34% in January
- 39% say he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems — up from 25% in January
- Around 3 in 10 say he’s “gone too far” in changing institutions like the Smithsonian and the Kennedy Center (which Trump put his name on before a judge removed it), remodeling the White House and other Washington landmarks and pursuing personal business interests while in the White House
- 30% say Trump doesn’t put the good of the country over his personal gain
- 26% say they’re angry or dissatisfied about the ballroom and the reflecting pool (compared to just 39% who are positive about these projects)
It would be bad enough for Trump if the economy were suboptimal and people didn’t think the things he did were working.
But these numbers — combined with the majority of Trump’s base that says he’s neglected inflation — make clear many of his backers think he’s preoccupied with things that either aren’t worth focusing on or are actively unpopular.
When many of these questions were asked in Trump’s first months back in office, there was a palpable sense of enthusiasm with his base.
When asked to describe their feelings looking ahead to the rest of Trump’s second term, nearly nine in 10 of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents said they were “enthusiastic” or “optimistic.”
Now, that number has dropped all the way to 70%.
And 30% say they’re either “pessimistic” or “afraid.”
That 30% who have a negative outlook is pretty remarkable. Shortly after former President Barack Obama was reelected in 2012, just 8% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they felt pessimistic or afraid. And just before former President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, only 5% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents said the same about him.
Then there’s the findings of a recent Pew Research Center poll.
That poll showed 81% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said their midterm vote would be a vote against Trump, compared to just 44% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who said theirs would be a vote for Trump.
There have been signs of this kind of malaise dating back a year, when the Jeffrey Epstein saga exploded. The latest numbers suggest it’s now taken hold in large swaths of the GOP base — at a very inopportune time for the party.
发表回复