2026-07-29T10:04:59.709Z / 路透社
2026年6月17日，美国华盛顿，美国联邦储备委员会新任主席凯文·沃什在华盛顿哥伦比亚特区的美联储总部，于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）为期两天的会议结束后举行新闻发布会。路透社/埃里克·李/档案照片
[1/2]2026年6月17日，美国华盛顿，美国联邦储备委员会新任主席凯文·沃什在华盛顿哥伦比亚特区的美联储总部，于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）为期两天的会议结束后举行新闻发布会。路透社/埃里克·李/档案照片 获取授权许可，打开新标签页
- 内容摘要
- 美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点（格林尼治标准时间18:00）发布政策声明
- 沃什将举行新闻发布会详细阐释决议内容
- 6月的预测显示仅一名美联储政策制定者预计到2026年底利率会下调
- 市场定价显示美联储加息25个基点的概率约为三分之一
华盛顿7月29日路透电 — 尽管越来越多的美联储政策制定者公开担忧通胀，但外界普遍预计美联储周三将维持利率不变，但由于美国央行行长凯文·沃什采取了不提供政策指引的做法，本次决议结果异乎寻常地不确定。
最终，在上一次会议上沃什的18位同僚就今年是否加息的意见完全持平，因此决议走向将由沃什决定。同时，他是否会坚持在政策决议发布后不做过多解释、不提供前瞻性指引的政策，也存在不确定性，这可能引发不同立场的异议投票。
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美联储政策制定委员会将于美国东部时间下午2点（格林尼治标准时间18:00）公布决议。沃什定于半小时后举行新闻发布会。
沃什于今年5月接任美联储主席一职，他曾表示对通胀率持续5年以上高于美联储2%的目标“零容忍”。直到上个月，随着美国牵头的与伊朗的冲突推高全球燃油和食品价格，以及数据中心和其他与人工智能相关的支出推高需求，通胀率持续攀升。
与此同时，在6月16日至17日的会议上，沃什获得了所有同僚的支持，将美联储基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%的区间内。
不过，自美联储政策制定者上月开会以来，价格压力有所缓解。6月消费者物价指数同比涨幅从5月的4.2%放缓至3.5%，而由于美国和伊朗之间再次出现停火希望，油价本周大幅下跌。
“我们认为美联储很可能不会加息。在6月通胀数据向好之后立即加息会很反常，如果有必要，9月加息的路径会更顺畅，”Evercore ISI副主席克里希纳·古哈表示，“但鉴于沃什拒绝阐明其政策策略，我们不能低估加息的可能性。……我们认为目前委员会内部没有普遍的加息压力。但如果沃什希望加息，现有票数足够支持他。”
在本周为期两天的会议召开前，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根和克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克均表示支持加息，以将通胀拉回2%的目标轨道。经济学家预计，如果大多数政策制定者决定维持利率不变，至少其中一人会投下异议票。
金融市场定价显示美联储加息25个基点的概率约为三分之一。少数经济学家表示，沃什若在本周会议上实施这次加息，将是明智之举。
“现在小幅加息好过日后大幅加息，”文艺复兴宏观研究公司经济主管尼尔·达塔在一份报告中写道。
在沃什的前任杰罗姆·鲍威尔任内，美联储于2025年三次降息，以应对大多数政策制定者认为正在疲软的劳动力市场，该市场此后已趋于稳定。通胀在去年看似放缓后，在2026年出现反弹，尽管6月数据有所改善。
“如果说去年是采取一些保险措施，那么今年就是要收回部分措施，”达塔说。
降息不在考虑范围内
加息不太可能得到白宫的欢迎。
总统唐纳德·特朗普曾抨击鲍威尔领导的美联储未能实施他认为提振经济所需的大规模降息，他亲自任命沃什，希望此举能为宽松政策打开大门。到目前为止，特朗普一直指责美联储理事会的其他成员限制了沃什在利率问题上的行动自由。
“我们应该拥有世界上最低的利率，”特朗普周一在空军一号上对记者表示，“凯文非常出色，但他有一个委员会，而委员会成员非常政治化。”
美联储政策制定者几乎没有支持降息的声音。他们在上次会议结束后发布的最新预测显示，仅有一人预计到今年年底利率会下调。
另一方面，一名分析师甚至推演了美联储大幅加息50个基点的可能性，这也凸显了本周会议结果的不确定性。
“在我们看来，任何加息（尤其是50个基点）更多是出于姿态和信誉动机，”预测机构LH Meyer的分析师德里克·唐在一份报告中写道，同时他还认为，大幅加息将消除外界对沃什屈服于总统压力的质疑，并标志着这位新任美联储主席承诺的“ regime change（政策范式转变）”将在美联储落地。
在6月17日的会后新闻发布会上，沃什表示，他将金融市场视为央行决策者最重要的信息来源之一。他表示，之所以不愿向市场透露他对合适利率路径的想法，原因之一是为了迫使投资者根据经济数据而非政策制定者的声明做出反应。
“由于新主席任内的政策反应函数几乎没有提供指引，市场正通过猜测填补这一空白，即沃什可能会出人意料地加息，以强化抗通胀的信誉，”巴克莱经济学家在一份报告中写道，“风险在于，这种猜测本身可能开始影响政策走向。”
安·萨菲尔报道；保罗·西毛编辑
Uncertainty creeps into Fed’s rate decision as Warsh keeps his cards hidden
2026-07-29T10:04:59.709Z / Reuters
New U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., U.S. June 17, 2026. REUTERS/Eric Lee/File Photo
[1/2]New U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., U.S. June 17, 2026. REUTERS/Eric Lee/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Fed due to release policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT)
- Warsh will hold news conference to elaborate on decision
- June projections showed just one Fed policymaker saw lower rates by end of 2026
- Markets price about a one-in-three chance of a quarter-percentage-point hike
WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is seen as more likely to leave interest rates steady on Wednesday even as a growing number of its policymakers fret openly about inflation, but the outcome is unusually uncertain because of the no-guidance regime adopted by U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh.
In the end, with his 18 Fed colleagues evenly split at the last meeting on whether to hike rates this year, it will be up to Warsh to sway the outcome in the direction he desires. It is also uncertain whether he will stick to his policy of providing little explanation and no forward guidance following the policy decision, which is likely to draw dissents either way.
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The Fed’s policy-setting committee is due to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference beginning half an hour later.
Warsh, who took over as head of the central bank in May, has said he has “no tolerance” for inflation that has been running above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, and up until last month was accelerating as the U.S.-led war with Iran pushed up global fuel and food prices and investment in data centers and other spending tied to artificial intelligence drove up demand.
At the same time, Warsh won backing from all his colleagues at the June 16-17 meeting to leave the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Price pressures, however, have eased since Fed policymakers gathered last month. Consumer price inflation slowed to 3.5% on a year-over-year basis in June, from 4.2% in May, and oil prices have fallen sharply this week on renewed hopes of another ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
“We think the Fed will probably not hike. It would be odd to do so right after the better June inflation print, given an uncomplicated path to hike in September if needed,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI. “But we cannot take the probability too low given Warsh’s refusal to set out his strategy. … We do not see broad pressure on the committee to hike now. But the votes are there if Warsh wants to go.”
In the run-up to this week’s two-day meeting, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both indicated support for higher rates to put inflation back on a path to the 2% goal. Economists expect at least one of them to dissent should the majority of policymakers decide to leave rates unchanged.
Financial markets are pricing about a one-in-three chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike. A few economists say Warsh would be smart to deliver that surprise at this week’s meeting.
“It’s better to do a little now instead of a lot later,” Neil Dutta, the head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a note.
The Fed, under Warsh’s predecessor Jerome Powell, cut rates three times in 2025 to head off what most policymakers felt was a weakening labor market that has since stabilized. Inflation, which seemed to be cooling last year, reversed course in 2026, June’s improved reading notwithstanding.
“If last year was about taking out some insurance, this year is about giving some of it back,” Dutta said.
RATE CUT NOT IN THE CARDS
A rate hike would not likely be welcomed in the White House.
President Donald Trump skewered the Powell-led Fed for failing to deliver the big rate cuts he thought were needed to boost the economy and he hand-picked Warsh with the hope that doing so would open the door to easier policy. So far, Trump has blamed other members of the Fed’s Board of Governors for tying Warsh’s hands on rates.
“We should have the lowest interest rate in the world,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday. “Kevin is fantastic, but he’s got a board, and the board members are very political.”
The possibility of a rate cut has garnered almost no backing from Fed policymakers. Their latest projections, published after the end of last month’s meeting, showed just one of them anticipating that rates would be lower by the end of this year.
At the other end of the spectrum, and illustrating the uncertainty around the outcome of this week’s meeting, one analyst even gamed out the possibility of a supersized half-percentage-point hike.
“In our view, hiking at all (especially 50 basis points) would be driven more by posturing and credibility motives,” Derek Tang, an analyst with forecasting firm LH Meyer, wrote in a note, even as he argued that a big rate hike would put to rest any doubts of Warsh caving to presidential pressure and would mark the “regime change” that the new Fed chief promised he would bring to the central bank.
During his June 17 post-meeting press conference, Warsh said he viewed financial markets as one of the most important sources of information for central bankers. One reason he does not want to tell markets what he is thinking about the appropriate path of interest rates, he said, is to force investors to react to the economic data instead of policymakers’ pronouncements.
“With little guidance on the reaction function under the new chairman, markets are filling the void with speculation that Warsh may be eyeing a surprise hike to reinforce anti-inflation credibility,” Barclays economists wrote in a note. “The risk is that the speculation itself begins to shape policy.”
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
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